|
Thirteen clues to investment in 2022
We could cite less than 13, or even more clues, but it must be said that, contrary to what some people think, investment will not be driven by good or bad luck, but by a set of economic and political forces. If these converge globally in a positive way, it will be a good year but, on the other hand, if they get worse, it will be a year to forget from the point of view of investors. Let us discuss the 13 clues that we think are most relevant for this New Year.
1) Will we continue in a pandemic? The last month of 2021 may determine whether the sixth wave will take root and close part of the European economy or whether we will overcome it. We will also soon know whether the Omicron variant is as dangerous as the markets interpreted when they received the South African report. Once again, the evolution of the pandemic and vaccination will undoubtedly be the most important element for investors to follow.
2) Temporary or structural inflation? Too many people, too quickly underestimated the first warnings of inflation that would (or would not) result from a return to normal post-pandemic economic activity. Had we forgotten what price growth is and how it works? We still do not know which part is conjunctural and which is structural, but there is no shortage of reasons to be concerned and alert. Inflation, like Covid, is highly contagious and negative for the economy and investment.
3) Can some of the European economies lag behind in recovery? This will be true if we look at the reductions in the forecasts from some agencies. This could again penalise European financial market indicators...
|
